Aiden Singh Trading Timeline
Event Traded | Profit (P)/Loss(L) | Market Type | Long/Short*
* Applicable to Financial Markets Only
Does not include bets that an event will not occur
Note: Wagers on a single event often consist of many individual trades
Win % (over all events/non-events traded): >90%
2020
March 2020
Oil prices rebound after going negative due to start of SARS-CoV2 pandemic & OPEC+ deal falling apart | (P) | Financial | Long
July 2020
SARS-CoV2 Pandemic causes recession in the US | (P) | Prediction
August 2020
Joe Biden chooses Kamala Harris as VP running-mate |(P)| Prediction
October 2020
Amy Coney Barret becomes Supreme Court Justice | (P) | Prediction
In 2016, the Republican-majority Senate had refused to consider Merrick Garland, Democratic President Barack Obama’s nominee to fill a vacancy on the Supreme Court, on the grounds that an election would be taking place in 10 months. On September 18, 2020, the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg left a vacant seat on the Supreme Court. On September 27, with just over a month to go before the 2020 election, Republican President Donald Trump nominated Amy Coney Barrett to fill the vacancy.
Correctly wagered that the Republican-majority Senate would rush to confirm the nominee before the election, despite having previously refused to even consider Garland’s nomination 10 months before the 2016 election.
US Q3 GDP Q over Q growth booms from the low base of Q2 2020 | (P)| Prediction
November 2020
Joe Biden wins 2020 presidential election |(P)| Prediction
2020-2022
Reopening from SARS-CoV2 pandemic lockdowns |(P)| Financial | Long
2021
January 2021
Nancy Pelosi re-elected House Speaker |(P)| Prediction
The Democratic Party lost seats in the House of Representatives in the 2020 election. As a result, the Democratic Party’s majority in the House was now thin enough that self-described ‘progressive’ members of the party could thwart Nancy Pelosi’s bid for another term of Speaker of the House by withholding their support for her. Some self-described ‘progressive’ online media figures called for progressive members of the House to use this leverage to extract concessions. In particular, they proposed that progressive members of the House should threaten to withhold their support for Pelosi unless she promised that, if re-elected Speaker, she would bring Medicare-for-all to a floor vote.
Correctly wagered that these progressive members of the House wouldn’t use this leverage.
Donald Trump impeached for a second time |(P)| Prediction
On January 13, 2021 the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives votes to impeach Trump on the charge of inciting an insurrection which resulted in a mob breaking into the U.S. Capitol Building on January 6, 2021.
Georgia Senate special election |(L)| Prediction
Janet Yellen becomes Treasury Secretary |(P)| Prediction
Lloyd Austin becomes Secretary of Defense |(P)| Prediction
Avril Haines becomes DNI head |(P)| Prediction
February 2021
Tom Vilsack confirmed as Agriculture Secretary |(P)| Prediction
Senate does not convict Trump in his 2nd impeachment trial |(P)| Prediction
A majority of 57 senators voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial, including seven Republicans. Seven Republicans joining all 50 Democrats in voting to convict made this the most bipartisan support for conviction of a president in an impeachment trial in American history. However, this still fell short of the two-thirds majority needed for conviction.
House Republicans vote to keep Rep. Liz Cheney as the party’s Conference Chair despite her support for impeaching Trump |(P)| Prediction
March 2021
Biden nominee Neera Tandan withdraws from consideration as OMB director, lacking the support needed for confirmation by the Senate |(P)| Prediction
Summer 2021
Concerns about Delta variant cause temporary decline in reopening stocks (energy, travel, commercial real estate) before a rebound. |(P)| Financial | Long
Began building a long position in SL Green (SLG) in September 2021 in the high $60’s. Sold off position in January 2022 in the high 70’s and low 80’s. |(P)| Financial | Long
Added to long XOM position throughout the summer as a wager on higher oil prices. |(P)| Financial | Long
Context: Energy had been the worst performing sector of the S&P500 in 2020 and had been underperforming relative to the market for a decade. The most notable investor of the Meme Asset Frenzy, Cathie Woods, tweeted on July 15, 2021 that oil would fall to $12/barrel “now that EVs are taking off.” The belief among many was that fossil fuels were out, ESG and renewables were in.
Wager: Oil prices would rise as the world re-opened from the pandemic and travel increased. Moreover, supply would remain tight as OPEC+ would be in no hurry to increase supply. The result would be a supply constraint coupled with increased demand. And EVs would not make up enough of a share of the auto market to offset this. The infrastructure required for broad EV adoption is simply not there. Plus, demand for oil comes from many other sources in addition to automobiles. Moreover, in the event of an unpredictable/untimeable geopolitical conflict involving the Middle East, Russia, Venezuela, or other oil producing countries, oil pipelines, or oil shipping lanes, this holding would perform well (a sort of hedge against geopolitical risk), and the gains could be put towards purchases in other sectors that would likely get hit. This logic proves apt when Russia invades Ukraine in February 2022.
Outcome: Energy stocks are the best performing sector of the S&P 500 in 2021 and in early 2022 oil trades above $100/barrel.
Further disclosures forthcoming.
September 2021
Concerns about the Chinese real estate sector heighten as Evergrande says it may default on its debts, sending shares in miners of industrial metals plummeting
Began building a long position in BHP in the mid $50’s in October 2021. Sold off position in high 60’s in February 2022. | (P)| Financial | Long.
Late 2021
Concerns about Omicron variant cause temporary decline in reopening stocks before a rebound. |(P)| Financial | Long
2021 - 2022
Meme Asset Frenzy:
Shares in Bitcoin miners fall after reaching all-time highs |(P)| Financial| Short
Shorted bitcoin miners Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT), which soared in 2021 as bitcoin hit all time highs. Shorting the miners provided two potential ways to win: 1) a decline in the price of bitcoin, 2) the mismanagement of these companies.
Riot Blockchain, Inc. began life as an unprofitable biotech company called Bioptix. In October 2017, the company announced it was changing its name to Riot Blockchain, Inc. and would begin mining bitcoin. And in 2018 the the Securities and Exchange Commission charged Riot’s CEO John O’ Rourke with alleged market manipulation. O’ Rourke reached a settlement agreement with the SEC in 2020. Unprofitable, with a history of poor management, and a mid-life change in industry and focus, shorting Riot provided multiple ways to win.
Shares in GameStop fall after hitting all-time highs |(P)| Financial| Short
Waited as Melvin Capital and other short-sellers were squeezed out of short positions in GameStop (GME) by meme stock ‘HODLers’ buying stocks hyped on Reddit. Went short GME once the short interest in the stock had plunged from triple digits to ~10% and the stock had soared. Covered the short as GME fell.
GME remained volatile throughout 2021-2022. Re-established the short on GME spikes and covered again on falls.
Shares in AMC fall after reaching all-time highs |(P)| Financial| Short
Waited as short-sellers were squeezed out of short positions in AMC by meme stock ‘HODLers’ buying stocks hyped on Reddit. Went short AMC once the short interest in the stock had fallen and the stock had soared. Covered the short as AMC fell.
2022
Start 2022
Tech stocks are routed in early 2022.
Overpriced tech stocks get routed at the start of 2022. On January 6, 2022, 40% of NASDAQ Index members are down 50% or more from their one-year highs. The ARKK Innovation ETF plunges: having traded above $130 in June of 2021 at the height of the meme asset frenzy, it closes at $60.88 on February 23, 2022. On March 7, 2022, some speculative tech stocks are down 75% from their highs. Highly profitable mega-cap tech stocks also get caught up in the sell-off.
Establish a long position in Alphabet (GOOGL) after it falls from its highs, despite announcing record profits. Sell in early April. |(P)| Financial | Long
Oil prices continue to rise. |(P)| Financial | Long
Energy stocks finished 2021 as the best performing sector of the S&P 500. Oil continues to rally in early 2022. Sell cost basis of XOM trade plus take ~70% of profits. Allow remaining ~30% of profits to run.
February 2022
Russia invades Ukraine.
Cover a short position in GME as the market falls. |(P)| Financial | Short.
Take remaining gains in XOM as oil spikes past $100 a barrel. |(P)| Financial | Long.
Trade the volatility in (positions still open).
As the market falls, also place short-term trades in Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH), and United Airlines (UAL). |(P)| Financial | Long.
March 2022
Movie Theater Chain AMC Entertainment Announces Purchase of Roughly 22% Stake in Unprofitable Gold Mining Company Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation
AMC pops in after-hours trading on Tuesday March 15, 2022 after it announces the purchase of a roughly 22% stake in unprofitable Nevada gold miner Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (HYMC). Begin establishing a short position in AMC in pre-market trading on March 16, 2022. The stock gives up its after-hours/pre-market gains at the market open. Cover the short position. |(P)| Financial | Short.
AMC moves higher again, trading up ~ 6% at one point in morning trading. Establish a new short. The stock drops in afternoon trading. Cover the short. |(P)|Financial|Short.
GME surges from ~ $80/share in Mid-March to ~ $190/share in late March. AMC moves from ~$14/share to ~$29/share over the same period. On march 31, GameStop announces plans for a stock split. GME jumps 22% in after-hours trading on the 31st.
Short both. Begin taking profits in April as the market falls.
April 2022
On April 5, Carnival Cruise Line (CCL) reports that the week from March 28-April 3 was the busiest booking week in the company’s history. The week’s bookings were a double-digit increase over the company’s previous record booking week. The stock jumps on the day, then falls later in the week despite the positive news.
A quick note on market efficiency and news absorption. CCL closed at $19.74 on the 4th of April 2022. By now, it should have been widely understood that the Federal Reserve was going to undertake a series of policy rate hikes this year. And Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had occurred over a month ago. Were the financial markets efficient, all of these pieces of news should have integrated into the price of CCL by the 4th. Then on the 5th, CCL announced it had a recording booking week the week prior and the stock jumped; it closed the 5th at $20.22. This jump could be viewed as consistent with market efficiency: the market was incorporating newly released information into the price of CCL. (I would argue that the record bookings were predictable; however, market efficiency doesn’t require prediction of forthcoming news, only the correct integration of all available news). Then over the new few trading days, CCL proceeded to fall to below where it was trading on the 4th as the broader market fell. Wanting neat explanations for daily market moves, the business press reported the market fall as owing to expectations of a Fed Rate hike. But rate hikes had been widely anticipated for a long time prior. CCL closes on the 8th at $18.34, below its closing price of $19.74 on the 4th before the positive news story of record bookings. Nothing had changed for CCL’s prospects as a business between the 5th when the stock jumped on the news of record bookings and the 8th when it traded below where it was trading on the 4th. These types of moves, which can be seen frequently in the financial markets, are, I would argue, inconsistent with the idea of financial market efficiency.
Markets dip in the first full trading week of April, purportedly due to hawkish comments and minutes from the Federal Reserve.
Take some gains on GME & AMC shorts on the way down. |(P)| Financial| Short.
Use the gains from GME & AMC shorts plus cash from profitable GOOGL position closed at the start of the month to add to long positions. (Positions still open).
Establish a new long position in Delta Airlines (DAL).
Delta Airlines (DAL) reports Q1 earnings before the market opens on April 13. Projects it will return to profitability in Q2 due to increased demand for travel and despite the continued circulation of SARS-CoV-2. The stock jumps >6% in pre-market trading.
Take gains on roughly 1/6 of holding. |(P)| Financial| Long.
The NASDAQ Composite remains off its late 2021 highs by double digits.
Re-establish long in Alphabet (GOOGL) on a dip.
A U.S. federal judge strikes down CDC’s mask mandate for public transit on April 18th, ruling that the CDC had overstepped its authority in issuing the mandate. The Transportation Security Administration says it will no longer enforce mask wearing on public transportation in light of the ruling. And large U.S. airlines announce they will not require their own mask mandates This means Americans can now travel by air without being required to wear a mask. DAL closes up on both the 18th and 19th, adding to its rally over recent days.
Sell ~3% of position in DAL on the 19th. |(P)| Financial | Long.
United Airlines announces after the market close on April 20th that it expects to return to profitability in 2022. Airline stocks jump in after-hours trading. DAL had also closed up on the day.
Sell ~3% of position in DAL on the in after-hours trading on the 20th. |(P)| Financial | Long.
April 21st - American Airlines announces it expects to return to profitability in Q2 2022.